My bet is on obesity.

"Overweight and obesity significantly increase colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis of 66 studies revealing a 25–57% elevation in risk" https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12181496/

Diet and exercise (to lesser extent) are the mechanism of obesity. The other factors may affect diet and exercise. A massive other factor for the latter is driving.

Obesity indeed is a massive elephant in the room in public health discussions. And even in TFA "ultra-processed foods" are put first, which is a) just a silly category, and b) effects from poor quality nutrition are mainly via obesity.

The obesity epidemic is by far the most important public health problem in the developed world, but discussing this publicly, and thus effectively addressing it, is very difficult.

(Three out of) four experiments is anecdotal for sure, but the result meshes with more established instruction following benchmarking (although DeepSeek V4 pro does not top these): https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/ifbench

I found the writing clear and quite even handed. The lead is a bit salesy, but leads typically are. Knee-jerk dismissals based on vibes that something is LLM generated are quite low-effort.

It's picking strange tasks that don't really play to GPT-Pro's strengths (that model is roughly comparable to Mythos, intended for very hard reasoning and research-level problems) and then completely ignoring quite a few cases where GPT-Pro actually got some things more correct than DeepSeek did. The auto-AI ranking is just not reliable for this stuff.

> Contrary to belief, renewables, or generally speaking DC, makes things this stability problem worse.

Is there such belief? My feel is that anybody to whom electrical grid stability has even crossed their minds know this.

Also it was an asthma prevention study, not cognitive functioning one, adding even more "researcher degrees of freedom".

Doing such side studies is fine in itself, but selling such shakey results as "This study suggests that high-dose vitamin D3 supplementation during pregnancy may be associated with improved cognitive functioning at age 10 years." is a stretch.

> It's quite strange that it's very easy to detect AI in writing.

Or you detect only the easy to detect AI writing?

I really freaked out once I stopped seeing AI gen videos on those scrollyapps, that fear is what got me off them. (the videos got so good I couldn't tell if they were real or not)

The idea does smell a bit like a rationalization for policy that was extremely convenient for stockholders and a disaster for workers.

They do. I asked CharGPT for 327 x 48 and it used the "ChatGPT Instruments" calculator.

Previously it used to run Python scripts, and may still do for more complex calculations.

What's interesting is that one one hand LLM pumps are claiming a path to AGI.. while on the other hand, they are duct-taping in deterministic plugins for specific prompt types they find it better to offload...

In X years is it just going to be a thin OS-like layer where a majority of work is being handled by other "programs".

> while on the other hand, they are duct-taping in deterministic plugins for specific prompt types they find it better to offload

So, in essence, just like human beings?

How creditable would Claude be if it couldn’t answer “1+2=3?”

Worse, this is really human beings trying to pretend that their AI is AGI.

My point is what makes this terribly different than Alexa skills

For this category of problems, no, very unlike human beings.

Right.. plumbing in specific plugins for specific prompt forms feels like an expert system, rather than some general purpose intelligence.

Also big picture its hard to see it as some sort of self-improving intelligence if humans are hand crafting these paths and tools for it.

Exactly, an expert system marketed to nonexperts…

That doesn't seem very persuasive. The one example of a non-A GI we have, humans, does the same thing. We've been offloading arithmetic for at least 4000 years.

Sure but we don’t pretend otherwise…

> In X years is it just going to be a thin OS-like layer where a majority of work is being handled by other "programs"

That is my hopeful ideal

In which case it’s just a neat extension of search

The US gun culture resembles nothing like "a militia officered by men chosen from among themselves, fighting for their common liberties, and united and conducted by governments possessing their affections and confidence."

This was also before modern military with armored vehicles, aircraft, missiles and drones. I wonder what ratio of untrained handgun touting joe sixpacks would be needed against that.

If you want to get an idea what was meant with the militias at the time, look at maybe Switzerland. Or perhaps even countries with conscript armies.