I'm sure Boeing would have loved to have those orders, but 50 planes is not catastrophic.
In terms of the aircraft group, Boeing has steadily growing 787 orders and deliveries, with about 500 orders yet to deliver.
In terms of their space program, they are close to testing their manned capsule and just got a light touch program review, while SpaceX got put through the ringer.
And there are other aspects to Boeing that I'm not familiar with, but I'm sure don't relate directly to the 737 MAX.
As for Airbus, they have had to kill their A380 program, seemingly prematurely, in the face of declining interesting and cancelled orders. So, it's not all roses on the other side of the pond either.
787 orders and deliveries are very nice, but the bread and butter of Boeing and Airbus remains the 737 and A320 families. As you say Boeing has 500 orders for 787 yet to deliver, but they most importantly have 4,500 of the 737 remaining to deliver. Same for Airbus, they have about 600 orders for the A350 yet to deliver, but they most importantly have over 6,000 A320 in the pipeline.
The biggest issue for Boeing is that the MAX sold about 5,000 frames vs 7,000 for the A320NEO, going from a 50%/50% market shares (737NG vs A320) down to 40%/60% market shares (737MAX vs A320NEO). On the other hand the A320 is practically sold out for the next decade (Airbus is aiming at a production of 750/year, and that's quite a challenge), so the ratio is unlikely to move much.
Thanks, interesting. Do you think this dynamic has already been priced into Boeing's stock now, which is why it did not move much on this 50 plane order?
Yes, I think it is, none of what I wrote should come as a surprise to anyone even casually reading news about Boeing/Airbus. Certainly not an analyst crunching numbers.
Got any further reading on SpaceX getting a tougher review due to the pot thing? It seems kind of silly, if a CEO is seen having a glass of wine outside of work is there generally a presumption that the company / it’s employees are drunk during business hours?
> In terms of their space program, they are close to testing their manned capsule and just got a light touch program review, while SpaceX got put through the ringer.
Except the whole point of this subthread is that Boeing's stock price never faces any actual consequences, regardless of how badly the company screws up.
Boeing will not be allowed to fail, even if it personally bankrupts every taxpayer in the United States. And they know it.
Puts are short term, not long term. I agree that boeing will not be allowed to fail. Let's assume that it gets that bad. At what valuation will the company in the immediate wake of a bailout? 125% of current value? Or 75% of its current value?
In terms of the aircraft group, Boeing has steadily growing 787 orders and deliveries, with about 500 orders yet to deliver.
In terms of their space program, they are close to testing their manned capsule and just got a light touch program review, while SpaceX got put through the ringer.
And there are other aspects to Boeing that I'm not familiar with, but I'm sure don't relate directly to the 737 MAX.
As for Airbus, they have had to kill their A380 program, seemingly prematurely, in the face of declining interesting and cancelled orders. So, it's not all roses on the other side of the pond either.