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With omicron isn’t a zero Covid policy a fools errand? As the virus mutates into ever more infectious variants a zero-Covid policy becomes impossibe.


Since Sinovac is basically useless (about half as effective against the original virus, much less vs delta and omicron), China seems to come to the conclusion that letting Omicron run through would have worse consequences than the lockdowns. It’s a fucked situation.


What I don't get is, China has more than enough money to buy a vaccine that is more effective, and more than enough research capability to develop something against omicron if it's that bad there. Why don't they?

(Also, why didn't we scale the vaccines with the confidence we had, instead of waiting months doing nothing just because the complete results weren't available?)


Sibling commenter says money, but I fear it's more to do with ego, admitting the Made in China vaccines are ineffective against Omicron and having to import Western-made vaccines would mean a loss of face for the government. It's sad how a lot of China's actions are rooted in their feeling of insecurity.

But my instincts tell me some higher ups in government probably have taken a Western vaccine because they know they're effective against Omicron, they just can't admit that publicly.

On the topic of "research", I wonder why they haven't just "pirated" one of the mRNA vaccines and claimed it a Chinese invention.


Because all 4 China made vaccines' pharmaceutical companies are backed by higher ups in the CCP. Every Chinese vaccine injected is money to these officials(or their relatives') wallets


Well, so adapt them for the omicron. It's something every other vaccine producer did at some point, but didn't move forward because it was not the best policy outside of China.


Omicron appeared in last Oct. It's only been 6 months.

I also suspect that the gov doesn't want to make a new version as it would imply the original versions are ineffective (illogical I know.) Who knows how much they stockpiled the original shots ($$$).


> China has more than enough money to buy a vaccine that is more effective

You'd think they have enough money to ship in food and distribute it, yet evidently they're failing at even this.


Well, money can't buy logistical competence. At this level, it isn't available anywhere.


Yes. But it was also a fool's errand before omicron. Has there ever been a recorded instance of eliminating a respiratory infection before?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS#Containment

> The World Health Organization declared severe acute respiratory syndrome contained on 5 July 2003. The containment was achieved through successful public health measures. In the following months, four SARS cases were reported in China between December 2003 and January 2004.

> While SARS-CoV-1 probably persists as a potential zoonotic threat in its original animal reservoir, human-to-human transmission of this virus may be considered eradicated because no human case has been documented since four minor, brief, subsequent outbreaks in 2004.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS#Prevention

> Many public health interventions were made to try to control the spread of the disease, which is mainly spread through respiratory droplets in the air, either inhaled or deposited on surfaces and subsequently transferred to a body's mucous membranes. These interventions included earlier detection of the disease; isolation of people who are infected; droplet and contact precautions; and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE), including masks and isolation gowns. A 2017 meta-analysis found that for medical professionals wearing N-95 masks could reduce the chances of getting sick up to 80% compared to no mask. A screening process was also put in place at airports to monitor air travel to and from affected countries.


This line is expected to become endemic. China may have to stomach the current variants. It's not that relevant, but the coronavirus family is always going to reappear as it stands. I hope they recognize when it's no longer the same virus or same threat. Scientists proved that even in the perfect quarantine of Antarctica, coronavirus can reappear after months. This and many other lessons don't seem to get much attention. In any case, China is ruled by fear and its no surprise they are overconfident in their abilities. It does feel like even Western democracies paved the way for a country like this to stick to a single-minded approach when when its probably not called for.


Just as a side note (as I agree with four overall point): Antarctica is a bit different due to the very cold conditions which would allow virus to persist in the environment in a frozen state much much longer than elsewhere.


Yes, SARS #2 has significant differences, and at this point there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle.

I’m just answering:

> Has there ever been a recorded instance of eliminating a respiratory infection before?

That answer being a resounding “yes, and our best example of doing so is even a coronavirus”.


I wasn't directly challenging your answer but the picture it painted. However, if scientists had to formally ask if SARS as a disease was eradicated or eliminated from the world, the answer would be no. I think the underlying question is whether China is on a fool's errand or not.

Officials helped SARS-1 along in doing what it may have done sooner or later without the (slight) intervention: disappear into the background then quickly become just another line that can't compete for hosts. This doesn't translate into a recipe for success. The end of SARS-1 was not necessarily an example where all the congratulations were warranted for defying the odds. The more relevant legacy is that epidemiologists acknowledged SARS already had an animal reservoir in bats, and the world was supposed to be preparing for its return to humans. That didn't amount to much of a guard at all, and governments were given carte blanche to get us out of the pandemic. As we now see in China, a government can always claim that its measures are necessary and they continue to save lives (and do no harm).


From your first link: "While SARS-CoV-1 probably persists as a potential zoonotic threat in its original animal reservoir, human-to-human transmission of this virus may be considered eradicated because no human case has been documented since four minor, brief, subsequent outbreaks in 2004."

This is the same effect in play for SARS-CoV-2. It also persists in animals. It's a matter of time and chance before it reemerges.


SARS #1? That’s just one example.


There is a limit to how infectious it can get. I guess they are trying to play the long game on that.




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