Also, considering all college students nationally, a minority of student loan recipients manage to graduate from college. Yet they are required to pay back the loans whether or not they graduated. Let's assume your value is correct, the NPV per graduate is $100k. Let's take a 50% graduation rate nationally for students admitted. Let's consider the college charges $99.9k over 4 years. We also know that students are taking 4-6 years to graduate and 4 year graduations are rare. If your chance of graduating in 4-6 years is 50%, it becomes not a $.1k average pay out, but on average, weighted for actual outcomes, an overall loss.