There's a very real possibility that all the AI research investment of today unlocks AGI, on a timescale between a couple of years and a couple of decades, and that would upend the economy altogether. And falling short of that aspiration could still get you pretty far.
A lot of "AI" startups would crash and burn long before they deliver any real value. But that's true of any startup boom.
Right now, the bulk of the market value isn't in those vulnerable startups, but in major industry players like OpenAI and Nvidia. For the "bubble" to "pop", you need those companies to lose big. I don't think that it's likely to happen.
There's a very real possibility that all the AI research investment of today unlocks AGI, on a timescale between a couple of years and a couple of decades, and that would upend the economy altogether. And falling short of that aspiration could still get you pretty far.
A lot of "AI" startups would crash and burn long before they deliver any real value. But that's true of any startup boom.
Right now, the bulk of the market value isn't in those vulnerable startups, but in major industry players like OpenAI and Nvidia. For the "bubble" to "pop", you need those companies to lose big. I don't think that it's likely to happen.