I don't really see this happening in the way that most people are envisioning. It's clear that Anthropic and OpenAI have found product market fit. They've gotten companies hooked and personally I cannot go back to the old way of coding.
However, I do see a bit of reduced demand for hardware and datacenters which could reprice these companies to more sane multiples. There will be winners and losers.
But will you need overpriced Codex and Claude? Most business code is crappy SaaS and glorified CRUD apps & I can build those with Sonnet / DeepSeek just fine …
Have you noticed that some % of devs are totally sold on AI, and others less so? I use it all the time, and I'd say my use is declining now after a fair bit of disillusionment.
It's not hard to imagine a world in which:
* Companies realize they're spending too much on AI, and cut back
* AI companies start raising prices
* Companies cut back on AI usage even more to compensate for the higher prices
* Some individual users use less AI, while others continue to increase their usage
The projected figures rely on EVERYTHING continuing to go up, which it doesn't seem to be.
However, I do see a bit of reduced demand for hardware and datacenters which could reprice these companies to more sane multiples. There will be winners and losers.